11:23 p.m. I should have bought trifectas.

I was going to yes, but I'd chickened out and have bought trios instead. I just couldn't be sure about the pace. If Inti takes the lead, then the pace would be average because Yutaka would try to make Inti win. But if there were other horse(s) interfering with Inti as in Miyako Stakes, then the pace would tighten and it would be a whole different story. Chrysoberyl needed an average lap in order to perform well, and he got what he wanted, thus he won.

Considering the odds, I should have bought trifectas. There's a big difference between 1,900 yen and 8,980 yen.

The End

Caterpillar

1:52 p.m. As I look at the results of yesterday's Champions' Cup, Ijust can't help but sigh with admiration at Yutaka's skills.

The lap time for the 1800 meter race was 12.8-11.3-12.5-12.1-12.1-12.0-12.0-11.6-12.1, with the first 3 furlongs 36.6, 5 furlongs 60.8, and the last 3 furlongs 35.7. I'd say it was a medium slow pace. But if you take the lap time of the first 4 furlongs and compare with that of the last 4 furlongs from the back, 12.8 and 12.1, 11.3 and 11.6, 12.5 and 12.0, 12.1 and 12.0, you can see that there's only 0.7 second gap at most. That means Yutaka led Inti to run at 12.05 seconds per furlong averagely, which was the fastest the horse could go in order to save enough stamina to give a boost at the last stretch. Also by taking the lead, Yutaka controlled the race to stay at that pace.

It's a beautiful job well done and the reason why you shouldn't go against Yutaka Take if you're buying betting tickets. He's a genius.

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Caterpillar

6:22 p.m. I've taken a peek at the entry list of Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, though I have no idea what these fillies might be like.

Currently, this Ria Amelia seems to be very much favored but I can't be sure if I could trust her or not as the horse has only raced twice in her life. The clock of her previous race Artemis Stakes doesn't seem outstanding compared to Cravache d'Or's Saudi Arabia Racing Cup. I haven't been interested in any Amelias so far, besides Amelia Sachs that appears in Jeffery Deaver novels. Will have to see both races, I guess.

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Caterpillar

3:43 p.m. Since the rennovation in 2006, Hanshin mile has turned into a course for Deep Impact descendants. The sharp curves that were Hanshin track's features have been loosened as well as widened so that the course does not put a break to the horses catching up speed toward the last home stretch. Deep Impact descendants perform well in a situation when they can gain speed without hitting the breaks.

Well, roughly about half of the horses entered in Hanshin Juvenile Fillies have Deep Impact in their sire line...

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Caterpillar

3:00 p.m. This weekend's attraction is not only Hanshin JF. There are four G1 races held on the same day in Hong Kong, Hong Kong Cup(2000m), Hong Kong Mile(1600m), Hong Kong Sprint(1200m) and Hong Kong Vase(2400m).

Almond Eye has unfortunaely scratched off from Hong Kong Cup, but my Win Bright is on the entry list seeking for his second G1 win in Hong Kong. Four Japanese G1 winners are entered in Hong Kong Mile, Indy Champ, Norm Core, Admire Mars and Persian Knight. Danon Smash is entered in Hong Kong Sprint while Dierdre, Lucky Lilac and Glory Vase are entered in Hong Kong Vase.

There's more. Capella Stakes will be run on Nakayama dirt 1200m, with two runner-ups from JBC Kopano Kicking and Gold Queen. Also, it's the deadline for Arima Kinen's additional entry when Almond Eye's crew are supposed to make up their mind on whether or not to enter the horse.

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Caterpillar

1:44 p.m. The barrier draw for Hanshin Juvenile Fillies has been announced.

Womans's Heart drew a good post considering her sire line. Cravache d'Or, too. Ria Amelia may be too far out. She'll have to bear with the loss of swinging on the outside unless the pace gets tough. In that case, she could just stay put while the front runners race along.

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Caterpillar

4:24 p.m. Sorry it's becoming sort of a habit to be delayed, I really don't mean it. It's just that Saturday has tuned into a pretty busy day of my week. Okay, here's my call for Hanshin Juvenile Fillies.

The key would be, eeerm...Cravache d'Or. Not sure if this is a safe choice, but I'd rather stay with Cravache than with Ria Amelia. on the wheel would be Woman's Heart, Resistencia (tongue-twisting as Alice Synthesis Thirty), Luce della Vita, and Amelia. As I say every year it's a fillies' race, anything could happen. Maybe you shouldn't trust my selection of top-favored horses. Or, maybe you should.

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Caterpillar

7:18 p.m. I owe you all another apology. I came to think Luce della Vita was not fit for Hanshin JF, as she usually seems to have a bad start and she doesn't have that boost she'd definitely need in Hanshin mile. So I'd traded her off for Maltese Diosa who resultingly led me to a win.

I didn't imagine in my wildest dream though, that Resistencia (sounding like Alice Synthesis Thirty) would take the lead from wire to wire. Her rider Yuichi Kitamura did the right thing. She's the type of horse that would do better in an averagely high lap. If Resistencia hadn't taken the lead, what slow pace it could have been god only knows and she would have sunk in the pack.

The End

Caterpillar

3:38 p.m. This week there's gonna be Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes which will be run on the same course and in the same distance as Hanshin Juvenile Fillies. Meaning, I shouldn't change my stance in calling the race.

Since Cravache d'Or who is a Heart's Cry descendant and has came in 2nd in her previous race Saudi Arabia Racing Cup has lost in 3rd place in Juvenile Fillies, something similar might happen to the currently most favored Salios who is also a Heart's Cry descendant and has won Saudi Arabia RC. In fact, the damage could be bigger for him than for Cravache d'Or as he has won the race in an outstanding racing time.

Meanwhile, Almond Eye has entered Arima Kinen but whether or not she'll actually run the race is still undecided probably, due to the jockey problem. The Win Bright crew have also made an entry to Arima Kinen, which I'm totally against. My Win Bright has just won another international G1 race. Racing him with only a week's interval in a distance he's never run before is crazy. It's best to give him a vacation both as a reward and to restore his strength. Otherwise the horse would break.

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Caterpillar

6:20 p.m. Finally, things seem to have been settled. It has been officially announced that Almond Eye is going to run Arima Kinen with Christophe on her back. Due to this, Fierement's rider would be Kenichi Ikezoe.

About time. Cow is dancing a jig assured he now has a horse he can trust while I wonder what Sarturnalia crew might be thinking. They must have chosen Arima Kinen because Almond Eye would have been in Hong Kong Cup which was scheduled to be her last race meaning, she won't be in Arima Kinen. Fate.

The End

Caterpillar

3:54 p.m. Today, it has been announced officially that Win Bright scratched off from Arima Kinen to prepare for his next race Nakayama Kinen held next spring. That's the way. Though personally I think Kyoto Kinen would be a better step if they're aiming for Osaka-hai.

Paralell to being on the alert for Arima Kinen, I'm also checking up on Asahi-hai. You need to grab the chance when it comes your way as they don't often come along. As you all might know already, I don't have high self esteem and need to prepare myself well before maikng an action with confidence.

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Caterpillar

4:02 p.m. As for Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes, Salios still seems to be the most favored.

Whether Salios would perform well or not largely depends on which barrier he draws and what kind of pace the race would be run in. If the lap becomes average or slow, the damage he has from Saudi Arabia Royal Cup (sorry, I got the name wrong the other day) may not surface. However, there will be some risk of not being able to speed up smoothly because the horses would move in a tight pack through the race. In that case, starting from a barrier from the middle to the outside might help. Swinging around the outside will be a stamina-eater though that won't be much of a problem for this horse. More concerning is that Salios might lose his concentration if he's made to swing around the outside from start to finish.

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Caterpillar

2:31 p.m. The barrier draw for Asahi-hai Futurity Stakes have been announced. Let's go!

Red Bel Jour has drawn an ideal post for a Deep Impact descendant, as well as Pale Ale who is a Daiwa Major descendant. Salios drew a rather inner post which means he might have the risk of not being able to use his boost smoothly. But then, he's got one of the world's top jockeys on his back.

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Caterpillar

6:38 p.m. I hate to have to say this but sorry again, for the late update. We've been delayed yet again thanks to Microsoft's Windows Update...

So let's get right to the point. My key is Red Bel Jour. This is for my trio key. On the wheel would be Pale Ale, Salios, Taisei Vision, and Egremni. Am thinking of buying trifectas with Red Bel Jour keyed on third, Pale Ale, Salios, Taisei and Egremni on second, and Pale Ale and Salios on top. Also thinking of buying exactas keying Red Bel Jule on second, with Pale Ale and Salios on top.

Happy Asahi-hai!

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Caterpillar

9:50 p.m. Darn, Red Bel Jour has screwed the start! No horse can win a mile G1 race from that position, not even Almond Eye and we've all seen that this spring. Though I doubt if the horse could have come within 3rd place even if he'd had had an even start. Judging from the results, Red Bel Jour had certain damage from his previous two races and wasn't in his top condition today. I should have guessed but I couldn't.

I admit it was my bad that I keyed the wrong horse. No excuses. Will just have to review well and move on to the next.

The End

Caterpillar

5:23 p.m. Reviewing Asahi-hai after reinstalling and re-setting up the necessary softwares onto our main computer which had been forced through Windows recovery last weekend.

Looking at the clock here, 33.8-57.2-35.8 for the first 3 furlongs, 1000m and the last 3 furlongs was obviously a high pace even for a mile race. I'm assuming it's not a sheer coincidence that there was merely a 0.3 second gap between the lap of Hanshin Juvenile Fillies. No wonder why leading horses like Bien Fait or Meisho Titan all got taken over by horses that were in the back such as Gran Rey or Tagano Beauty.

What I'm puzzled is why then, did the horses winning a 1400m speed race in their previous race do well in Asahi-hai, while such horses didn't in Hanshin JF, that is, excluding Resistencia? Haven't found a plausible answer to this yet. Might leave it as an open question until next year...

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Caterpillar

5:52 p.m. While I still can't solve my puzzle of Asahi-hai, the annual Arima Kinen week has already begun. Eleven, did you hear me, eleven G1 horses are entered this year and that's something I've never seen in my life.

However, six horses out of the eleven top horses are sadly leaving the turf with this Arima Kinen : Almond Eye, Aerolithe, Al Ain, Crocosmia, Cheval Grand, Lys Gracieux, and Rey de Oro. There's an old saying among horse race fans that horses don't win in their last run, but I don't feel like cutting them all out to take a chance on the other horses. I'd call it suicidal.

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Caterpillar

3:06p.m. I should be pondering about Arima Kinen, I know, but since I came across a piece of news.

Epoca d'Oro, last year's Satsuki-dho winner has returned to his stable in Ritto Training Center after a long break. Ha! What has he been doing all this time, grazing? Was this really necessary? I mean, couldn't the horse have been back 2 months earlier so that he could run the autumn races? I'm pretty sure he didn't have any injuries. As I've mentioned before, chances don't come by so often and a race horse's career is not long.

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Caterpillar

3:49 p.m. The now annual barrier draw for Arima Kinen is going to be held from 5:00 p.m. Will write and upload the results as soon as I can. Rey de Oro's jockey seems to have settled with Kosei Miura, by the way.

5:07 p.m. Okay, so here goes!

Once again the names of 11 G1 champions are overwhelming... And I strongly realize that a star horse is a star even in her last run. Post number 9 is one of the best posts she could have drawn considering the number of competitors and the possibly slow pace.

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Caterpillar

2:05 p.m. Just realized I'd left out Lys Graxieu in the English version and modified it. Sorry about thst, folks!

Am currently analyzing the past results to see what could help me decide whether or not I should buy Rey de Oro, Suave Richard and Cheval Grand. There are some horses that perform well in Arima Kinen consecutively which I call repeaters. Cheval Grand is a good example as well as Buena Vista, To the Glory, Air Shady or Gols Ship. These horses must have something in common and that's what I'm trying to find out. Wish me luck!

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Caterpillar

7:24 p.m. Perhaps you've all become so used to it by now, but sorry for the delay. It always becomes hectic at year-ends.

My key horse is Almond Eye not to mention. I can't help it. No one can help it. The horse is outstanding. On the wheel would be Fierement, Lys Graxieu, World Premiere, Saturnalia, and Velox. Saturnalia and Lys Graxieu, I don't want to buy to be honest. Just can't find reasons to cut them out.

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Caterpillar

10:57 p.m. Oh, no. I didn't think Almond Eye was that fragile... According to Christophe's comment, she'd lost herself when she passed in front of the stand on the home stretch and was beside herself after that. No wonder it looked like she stopped right after she'd taken over Saturnalia by half-a-length. The rest, as you already know.

Come to think of it, I'd been more than careful when I had her on the top of my trifecta in last year's Japan Cup. I remember thinking her stability might not last for another year at the time, but I guess it wasn't easy for me to keep that in mind for over a year.

The End

Caterpillar

4:29 p.m. Well, I've been deceived by Almond Eye twice now. I guess it's time I learned that even Almond Eye is a living horse and not an a machine. Also that I should not key a horse with win odds less than 2. How many times do I have to tellthat to myself?

And I wonder how many more times do I have to warn myself with the same mistake but still, life goes on in the meantime and I'll have to trudge on. Wounds will heal with time. I learned that from experience.

The End

Caterpillar

3:42 p.m. There are still two more chances for me to regain what I've lost this season, Hopeful Stakes and Tokyo Dai-shoten.

I already have a picture of what Tokyo Dai-shoten might look like at the finish line, but haven't been able to look into Hopeful Stakes yet especially, when I haven't even finished my review for Arima Kinen. And even before that, I'll have to do something with my New Year greeting cards, though I have work filling my schedule from top to bottom. Sigh.

The End

Caterpillar

3:31 p.m. I was struck by lightning. I didn't know until yesterday that Hopeful Stakes was going to be run on Saturday, 28th...

How? Why? After I cooled down my head, I realized why. Beaurocracy. All the goverment offices finish work on the 28th annually, no matter what day of the week it is. JRA is a government-backed special corporation. December 28th last year fell on a Friday, but I remember I was already off work so I didn't notice the fact.

I was just getting started on the greeting cards which has been way behind schedule, and now they're telling me I've only got two more days to call lliterally, the last G1 of the year.

The End

Caterpillar

2:24 p.m. I've been wondering why the barrier draw for Hopeful Stakes hasn't been announced while Tokyo Dai-shoten's already has, but now they're out so let's take a look.

The inner post might not become a problem for Contrail since there aren't too many horses entered. If the pace is slow, it could even be an advantage. Post number 1 would be a good draw for Black Hole. It would help the horse focus on the race. Though his father somehow almost always drew outer posts.

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Caterpillar

5:55 p.m. Sorry to keep you waiting so long. The greeting cards have been designed and printed, meetings all finished, clients gone home and my call for Hopeful Stakes finally done.

Will key Wakea. I've had a bitter expereince with Deep Impact descendants that hadn't experienced tough races, so will put Contrail on the wheel. Once bitten, twice shy. Will set Wakea on the first place for trifecta, Black Hole and Contrail on second with Galore Creek, Weltreisende and Authority on third place. It's a win or lose game.

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Caterpillar

6:34 p.m. Sigh. Didn't I say it's the end once you lag behind at the start? Now I've only got Tokyo Dai-shoten left. Which I probably should not hope for much pay-out.

Will key K T Brave on a wheel of Omega Perfume, Nonkono Yume and Gold Dream. I'm still undecided whether or not to add Apollo Tenesee on my wheel. Am going for trifectas in hope for a better pay-out.

The End

Caterpillar

5:22 p.m. I took the trouble to register for the Internet betting account for local races just fro the sake of Tokyo Dai-shoten, and K.T. Brave sinks.

Well, I probably didn't buy Mogiana Flavor so I'd lost anyway. But I wish Mikamoto would have stuck to the rail and lead K.T. outside on the last stretch. K. T. doesn't do well in a pack. I know, it's wishful thinking.

There's no race left for me to make up for my year-end loss, will have to wait till Kin-pai. Doomed.

The End

Caterpillar

6:41 p.m. I've been neglecting my review for the races I'd bought. Didn't mean to neglect but just had to prioritize other things. Hopefully, will have some time to spare on them after New Year Day.

After the reviews are done, I'll be able to start thinking about Kin-pai. I had a bitter start with Kin-pai this year, must make the best out of it next year. For now, there are other things to do.

The End

Caterpillar

9:28 p.m. I've done a bit of cleaning and washing, visited the family grave, done some shopping before stores close for New Year.

Since I've finished what I could for the day, I went to take a peek at the Kinpai entry list. Just couldn't help it, you see. Can't say anything about it though, it's only Tuesday and there are still horses entering both Kyoto and Nakayama.

Am going to be on my annual petit runaway from tmorrow. Can't wait to have my reward, silence. I've worked hard for it for a year, I certainly deserve it. Have a Happy New Year, folks!

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Caterpillar