2019/10
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10/01  Record Breaking Contest

2:09 p.m. If the tracks are not affected by the typhoon, we'll be having another record breaking contest this weekend since races will start on Tokyo and Kyoto racing tracks.

Aerolithe will have the advantage in Tokyo in that case. As for Kyoto Dai-shoten, the pace is likely to become slow which suggests another instantaneous speed race. However, if there's a horse that would take the lead baldingly, the horse might do well depending on the lap it sets. Palingenesis, perhaps?

The End

Caterpillar

10/02  Expected Win Odds

3:25 p.m. Today's expected win odds for Mainichi Ohkan says that the most favored is Danon Kingly. The 2nd favored is Aerolithe and Indi Champ is the 3rd favored. Hello, I think Indi Champ won Yasuda Kinen beating Almond Eye though it's true Almond Eye had been met with an unfortunate accident in that race. Whereas Aerolithe hasn't won a G1 since 2 years ago and Danon Kingly's best performance was the 2nd place in D'erby.

Well, well, let's see what happens by the race. Oh, and Yutaka Take who has been canceled of his chance with Bloom, is now given another chance to ride in the Arc with a 3-year-old French horse called Soft Light. The horse has got Monju in his sire line. Who knows, he migt do pretty well like his grandfather.

The End

Caterpillar

10/03  You Never Know

3:49 p.m. On the same day as the Mainichi Ohkan and Kyoto Dai-shoten, Grand Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe will be run in France. 3 Japanese horses are entered as you might already know, Fierement, Kiseki and Blast Onepiece.

All three horses seem to be coming out nicely in their last training which is good to know. They are racing against the queen of the Arc Enable, a rival too hard to beat. But as Japan has won against Ireland in rugby, you never know what's gonna happen until they hit the wire.

The End

Caterpillar

10/04  Early Spart

1:57 p.m. The barriers for Mainichi Ohkan has been announced.

Keiai Nautique in post number 1, Gibeon in 2, Aerolithe in 3, Indy Champ in 4, Run For The Roses in 5, Persian Knight in 6, Meiner Fanrong in 7, Happy Grin in 8, Danon KIngly in 9, and Mozu Ascot in 10.

Considering the barrier, Danon Kingly must spart earlier than usual to catch Aerolithe. If his position lags back, it would be critical. On the other hand, Aerolithe drew a good post. If Tsumura could control her lap, she's the closest to winning unless her condition is not as good as expected.

The End

Caterpillar

10/05  Almost Weird

1:27 p.m. Will key Indy Champ for Mainichi Ohkan. As I've mentioned, it seems almost weird that this horse is underestimated. On the wheel would be, nah. I wouldn't have to buy a wheel since there are merely three more horses to buy: Aerolithe, Danon Kingly and Mozu Ascot.

As for Kyoto Dai-shoten, I would probably key Glory Vase along with Shirvanshah not Etario, if I were to buy betting tickets.

The End

Caterpillar

10/06  Astonishingly Low

9:49 p.m. As expected. But I still can't understand why Danon Kingly was so favored. Result is the astonishingly low payout. 1,000 yen for a trifecta is the lowest I've ever seen.

Didn't expect Dreadnoughtus to win Kyoto Dai-shoten, either. Well, the rider and tha horse made use of their advantage in the best way while Etario did the contrary. Riding Etario like that wouldn't even get the horse to win a 5 million prize class.

Let's leave it at that, I still have a race to watch tonight: the Arc.

The End

Caterpillar

10/07  Matter of Stamina and Power

4:02 p.m. I think it's a matter of horses' stamina and power. Japanese horses have speed, outstanding speed. But they lack the power and stamina to run through 2,400 meters on Longchamp turf. That's why I've been saying over and over that Deep Impact descendants won't do well. They have more than enough instantaneous speed however, their distance range is mainly from 1600 meters to 2,000 meters, and they simply lack the power and stamina to win the Arc. How many times do I have to say that, I wonder?

JRA has built speed tracks spending decades which has become almost unique to this country like the folding type cell phones. That itself might expand the possibility of horse-racing, though if the horse-race circle wants to win the Arc so much, they should build courses that resemble Longchamp.

The End

Caterpillar

10/08  Or Rather

Or rather, thsy should take Stay Gold descendants instead of Deep Impacts'. Though some huge group croaning "s" as an initial doesn't want that to happen.

Except for El Condor Pasa, all Japanese horses that finished 2nd in the Arc are Stay Gold descendants; Nakayama Festa and Orfevre (twice). While Deep Impact descendants have never finished above 2nd place. It's quite obvious, isn't it?

The End

Caterpillar

10/09  Shall We?

2:58 p.m. Let's burry the memories of the Arc until next year and move on now, shall we? We have the Shuka-sho waiting to be held this weekend, despite the approaching typhoon.

Shuka-sho is known as one of the top races that tend to have big payouts. Only twice had there been low payouts that didn't reach 10,000 yen in trifecta in the past ten years. In my humble opinion, the two main points in winning such large payout is whether you judge the most favored right, and whether you're able to pick the right dark horse(s) or not.

The End

Caterpillar

10/10  Without Rehersal

3:21 p.m. Speaking of Shuka-sho, I'm puzzled at why Crono Genesis didn't enter either of the trial races Rose Stakes or Shion Stakes.

It's True Almond Eye has won Shuka-sho with the same plan last year. But that was because it was Almond Eye. Crono Genesis has come up with plausible results after a couple-months' recess in spring. However, she's the type of horse that becomes nervous and tense, tends to fight against the reins in slow pace races. I don't think that her performance would improve greatly in Shuka-sho without a rehersal.

The only convincing answer I could think of is that the crew are actually aiming for Queen Elizabeth Cup.

The End

Caterpillar

10/11  Typhoon Approaching!

1:35 p.m. The barrier draw for Shuka-sho has been announced, despite the approaching typhoon. Cow mentioned it would be better this wway so I've put them all in a table.

Stay home for tomorrow as there are typhoon warnings all over and public trasportaion in center Tokyo would mostly stop operating from tomorrw noon!

Post NumberHorse Name
1Danon Fantasy
2Meisho Ubu
3Blanc Noir
4Too Flashy
5Chrono Genesis
6Rose Tesoro
7Beach Samba
8Curren Bouquetd'or
9Shadow Diva
10Schon Grantz
11Fairy Polka
12Red Anemos
13Satono Damsel
14Shigeru Pink Dia
15Contra Check
16Passing Through
17Espoir
18Sing For You

The End

Caterpillar

10/12  Likely to be Yielding

4:28 p.m. I've had all my work cancelled off to stay home today. It's the biggest typhoon I've ever seen and at such times, all you can do is stay home cecking out the latest information.

Sorry for the delay, but now I'm uploading my call for Shuka-sho. It took a lot of thinking to figure out and choose which horse to key. I'm keying Danon Fantasy. She (and Kawada) has let me down at Ohka-sho, they ought to pay me back. On the wheel would be Blanc Noir, Chrono Genesis, Shadow Diva, and Satono Damsel. Considering the track condition which is likely to be yielding.

The End

Caterpillar

10/13  For the 3rd Time

4:34 p.m. Danon Fantasy has let me down for the 3rd time. The first time was Ohka-sho. The second time, I got smart and didn't buy her in Oaks. And today, the 3rd time.

The rider and the horse were taking the best position in a race however, didn't have the boost when Kawada gave the horse a go. Perhaps ths lap was too fast and energy-consuming for Danon Fantasy especially, after she'd performed well in her previous race, Rose Stakes. That one was really great. That's why I got tricked again.

The End

Caterpillar

10/14  The Brave Blossoms

5:37 p.m. It was an amazing game last night. I can still feel the excitement of our national rugby team the "Brave Blossoms" beating the Scotts and winning the ticket to the final league! And we didn't barely manage to go with some gimmick or making the typhoon an excuse, WE WON!!!! I'm so proud of those boys, they've pulled our team up to the highest level in our history, tears, tears.

And you know, what? Our head coach Jamie Joseph likes horse racing! I wonder if he buys betting tickets in Japan?

Looking back on the Shuka-sho loss is quite a task while I'm still in excitement from last night's game, but one thing I felt after the race is that lately there are less horses from lower categories that perform well in Shuka-sho.

The End

Caterpillar

10/15  Shuka-sho, Different from the Oaks

1:20 p.m. After all, the top five of Shuka-sho all experienced either a step grade race or a G1, the Oaks. There were no horses from lower categories in the top five. Even when the Ohka-sho winner and Oaks winner are both abscent.

That means it's quite difficult for horses from lower catrgories like 10 million prize class to win Shuka-sho. This is something I ought to remember since it's something that marks Shuka-sho as a completely different race from the Oaks, although Oaks winners usually do well in this race.

The End

Caterpillar

10/16  What Will I Do?

5:23 p.m. Uh-oh, it's already Wednesday. We've had Monday off has a holiday, so I've only got 3 more days to call Kikka-sho.

And the troubling thing is that Lion Lion has scratched off. I was secretly hoping to key him (and perhaps Verox) but the horse has not only scratched off, but also has been announced to hace developed tendontis... What will I do now?

The End

Caterpillar

10/17  6 Times in a Row

5:13 p.m. Perhaps because it's the last of the classical race, the barrier draw for Kikka-sho has already been announced. So let's take a look.

Post NumberHorse Name
1Zadar
2Nishino Daisy
3Calibore
4Unicorn Lion
5World Premiere
6Divine Force
7Hishi Gekko
8Melody Lane
9Vin Quet Domingo
10Caudillo
11Sifflement
12Red Genial
13Velox
14Satono Lux
15Ho O Sabel
16Naimama
17Tagano Diamante
18Meisho Tengen

Velox has drawn a good post, but the rider is Kawada who has been losing below 4th place 6 times in a row despite being the most favored in win odds.

The End

Caterpillar

10/18  Rather the Contrary

2:01 p.m. Before Kikka-sho is run, there's also another step race held on Saturday. Fuji Stakes has long been a step race for Mile Championship.

I see names of Admire Mars, Leyenda, Cathedral, Gendarme, Logi Cry on the entry list. Rain is expected from this afternoon until around noon tomorrow, so the track can be soft. Admire Mars is the most favored not to mention, and soft tracks would probably advantage him. But winning this race would not make it easier to win Mile Championship. Rather the contrary, for your information.

The End

Caterpillar