Caterpillar's Murmur
Mystery Solved
(MON) February 28th, 2025
8:37 p.m. After analyzing Tokyo Shinbun-hai, I realized what made Water Licht perform so well.
When I compared the furlong time of Tokyo Shinbun-hai and Kyoto Kinpai, which was Water Licht's previous race, I learned that the first 1000m passed pretty much in the same speed. As a matter of fact, the maximum furlong time gap for the first 1000m for these two races were merely 0.3 seconds. What this means is that Kyoto Kinpai and Tokyo Shinbun-hai ran almost at the same speed until horses passed the 1000m furlong pole.
Naturally, horses that performed well in Kyoto Kinpai should do well again. Sakura Toujours, Meisho Titan, Water Licht, and Theo were all running Kyoto Kinpai in their previous race. But then, there's the leftover damage.
Sakura Toujours has made a flashy comeback in Kinpai from his huge loss in Sekiya Kinen, with barely no gap between the runner-up, Water Licht. That puts a lot of strain on the horse. Theo has also raised his position significantly from Casiopea Stakes. That's why these two horses didn't perform well in Tokyo Shinbun-hai, although the race flowed just like Kyoto Kinpai.
On the other hand, Meisho Titan who didn't have damage from Kyoto Kinpai as well as being able to take the lead this time raised his performance despite his age. Water Licht, likewise. There's a big difference between winning with little gap and finishing second with little gap, when it comes to the damage it leaves.
Okay! Mystery solved!
The End
Caterpillar