At Least Three Reasons

(WED) November 20th, 2024

7:50 p.m. Having reserached on Cervinia's background, I can't feel too positive about her for at least three reasons.

One, because it's hard to believe extending the distance to 2400m from Shuka-sho could benefit Cervinia, even though she has amazingly come back from her huge loss in Ohka-sho and became an Oaks winner.

Reason two is because I don't think Japan Cup is not likely to be a grueling match, which Harbinger descendants do well in. Reason three, Cervinia has already performed highly in her previous two races and there's a risk piled up damage could backfire (well, she's done that in Ohka-sho, no one can be sure she won't this time).

Moreover, not all 3-year-old female horses have performed well. I've just seen a headline screaming, "Data shows 66.7% place win rate for Shuka-sho group in the last 15 years; Cervinia as leading player," but if you unfold the "66.7% place winners" you can easily see that they are all top horses that never have lost below third place in the three female classic races, Red Desire and Harpstar included. I can't trust Cervinia who actually did a blunder in Ohka-sho, regardless of the reason.

It's true there are female horses that won Japan Cup while they were 3 years old, though those were special horses like Gentil Donna and Almond Eye that won the female tipple crown. Look at Daring Tact, also a female tripple crown winner and she could only make it to third place, though I admit Contrail and Almond Eye were too tough a rival to beat.

The End

Caterpillar