6:48 p.m. As usual, horses that performed well in NHK Mile Cup have mostly finished above 4th place in their previous races. There were actually eight horses in the past ten years that have sunk below 5th place in their previous races, but performed well in NHK Mile Cup.

Most of these eight horses had finished above third place in the race before their step races. It's not easy for a horse to recover from cosecutive losses. The only two horses that hadn't were Clarity Sky, the 2015 winner and Kings of the Sun finishing third in 2014.

What the two horses had in common was that their last two races before NHK Mile Cup were both identically the same, Yayoisho and Satsukisho. Another sheer coincidence between Clarity Sky and King of the Sun was that they had both performed well in their race before Yayoisho. Clarity Sky had won the third place in Asahihai Futurity Stakes, while Kings of the Sun had finished second in Keiseihai.

Good, good. So I could start from crossing out horses that haven't finished above third place for three consecutive races.

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Caterpillar

7:46 p.m. Checked out the horses that haven't finished above third place in their last three races and it turns out I can only cross out one.

Never mind. Moving on to which step races the high-performers were from.

In the past ten years, the step races that performed best were Arlington Cup and New Zealand Trophy, and six horses from each race have finished above third place in NHK Mile Cup. Since they are both mile races, it's better to finish in the top three than sink way below. Horses losing below fourth place but making a come back in NHK Mile have won in their previous races before Arlington Cup or New Zealand Trophy.

Horses from Oukasho seem to do better in NHK Mile when their performances in Oukasho was not so good. The only exception was Resistencia, the runner-up in Oukasho, but then, she was the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies champion. Horses losing in fourth or fifth place in Oukasho seem to have a better chance when they'd performed well in Queen Cup.

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8:37 p.m. Sorry about skiping yesterday, I had to face a devastatingly sad truth and I just couldn't bring myself up to writing. Haven't been able to focus on anything since then, for the impact was overwhelmingly big.

I've taken some short cuts and managed to narrow down the candidates for NHK Mile Cup to six, give or take a few, but it seems that's the best I could do for now.

The six remaining candidates are Noble Roger, Di Speranza, Bond Girl, Gonbade Qabus, Ascoli Piceno, and Jantar Mantar. I'm thinking of keying Ascoli Piceno for the moment.

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8:12 p.m. There's nothing to say as I was way far off the mark.

Eventually, I keyed Ascoli Piceno but didn't think Jantar Mantar would win. Besides I crossed out Logi Leon at an early stage.

Will see if I could reset myself. There's been a lot on lately.

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Caterpillar

7:34 p.m. Even though I want a break, the world won't stop turning and tomorrow keeps coming. I've got to go out tomorrow and therefore make preparations.

Mr. N-jima who has won the NHK Mile Cup trifecta mentioned that Maked Diva would win this week's Victoria Mile Cup, but it just doesn't sound right to me. I don't remember a female horse winning both Hanshin Hinba Stakes and Victoria Mile Cup, although there were horses that finished second or third.

Will see if I could check my past notes tomorrow.

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Caterpillar

7:14 p.m. Very tired and sleepy as I had to get up earlier than usual. But I did check the past results of Victoria Mile Cup.

As I'd feared, no horse in the past 10 years have won both Hanshin Hinba Stakes and Victoria Mile Cup. The best performance was by Sound Chiara finishing second in the 2020 Victoria Mile Cup after winning Hanshin Hinba Stakes.

I've also forced myself to dig out old notes from the past Victoria Mile Cup to find a short description about Hanshin Hinba Stakes winners. It said pay little attention to the horses that won Hanshin Hinba except when they are Sunday Silence descendants. Well, there aren't direct descendant of Sunday Silence anymore, so perhaps I could ignore Masked Diva?

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7:53 p.m. It turns out this year's Victoria Mile Cup probably won't run in full field. As I checked the entry form a while ago, the names of horses entered counted to just 15. Not that it matters, but then, the chances for bigger payouts is generally higher when more horses are running.

Meanwhile, I've dug out another note, this one from the past Yasuda Kinen, which might be of some help. The situation is a bit different from Yasuda Kinen, since Victoria Mile Cup is held two weeks earlier, though I might be able to repurpose the system as the two races are run on the same course, same distance.

Hope that works!

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Caterpillar

8:51 p.m. Another clue from the past results.

As I often say, due to the distance of the race, it's better not to lose both of the last two races too big. In the past 10 years, there were eight high-performing horses that had finished below fourth place consecutively before Victoria Mile Cup. However, six of them had a career of finishing above third place in G1 races including Victoria Mile Cup, which means that they had high potential and aptitude.

The remaining two, Minaret and Denko Ange didn't have a career in G1s. What they share is that their previous race was Fukushima Hinba Stakes, and they'd both finished above fifth place.

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Caterpillar

8:38 p.m. This week I received a message from the old man rushing me to send the result of the barrier draw. I'm not sure if he sensed my tragic experience last week, but the old guy can be surprisingly intuitive sometimes.

Doesn't look like the pace could get tight with these competitors. If so, it could become Maked Diva's pace, though that doesn't automatically mean she'd win.

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8:58 p.m. Getting right down to the point as I'm tired, sleepy, and worn out.

Currently the remaining horses on my list are Fierce Pride, Umbrail, Masked Diva, Ten Happy Rose, and Namur, though I've forgotten why I kept Ten Happy Rose. Might add Doe Eyes.

Haven't decided which to key, Masked Diva or Namur, but the track condition seems to suggest horses that could take their positions up front. Will go check the results of today's races again.

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Caterpillar

7:44 p.m. Is there anyone who bought betting tickets making use of my call? If someone has won such a huge payout, I'd be very happy and it would also be the least blessing.

I was stupid enough to buy exactas keying Namur on the first place and Ten Happy Rose on the second. I had Masked Diva on the first and second row of my trifectas but not on the third row. Since I was thinking that it would be better to take higher position, why didn't I simply key Masked Diva on a trio?

Guess I need some help with logical thinking, though I knew that for some time now. Obviously, it would take time to gain the skill to think logically, so maybe I'll try asking an AI next time for help.

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Caterpillar

8:08 p.m. The Oaks is already coming up this week. As in previous years, horses from Oukasho will be at an advantage. Having run in a G1 race has an impact on both the growth of young horses at this time of year and the results of the next race.

The key is to find horses from the Oukasho group that will benefit from the change in conditions to Tokyo 2400m. At this point, I think Stellenbosch's dominance is unshakeable. The rest is to see if there are any horses from Oukasho that lost for a good reason, but will benefit from the change in conditions.

Horses coming from other routes are difficult to evaluate as top class horses especially, when they haven't experienced Oukasho. In addition, depending on their past race records, it is not uncommon for them to find it difficult to run well due to fatigue or stress. I think the only chance for a good run in the Oaks is for horses with high potential, no damage from fatigue or stress, and who will benefit from the change in conditions.

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Caterpillar

8:35 p.m. If you look at the results of Oaks for the past ten years, it's easy to see how horses from Oukasho perform well. Every year, there's at least one horse from Oukasho, finishing above third place, without exception. In 2014, 2018, and 2023, horses running Oukasho in their previous race have actually dominated the top three of Oaks.

The question is, which horse from Oukasho should I buy and which horse should I not? Well, I have a simple standard to decide whether or not to buy. If the horse has performed better in a slow-lapped race in its short career, I'd buy. If not, I'd cross that horse out.

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Caterpillar

7:53 p.m. Let's take a look at the Oukasho group entered for Oaks at the moment. Queen's Walk, Shonan Manuela, Sweep Feet, Stellenbosch, Cervinia, and Light Back's names are on the entry list. And I've checked all six horses to ses whether their performance could improve in a lagged pace.

Speaking from the result, there were only two horses likely to improve or keep their perfomances when the pace dropped, Stellenbosch and Light Back. They might be conventional and probably quite favored, with Ascoli Piceno choosing NHK Mile Cup instead of Oaks, but it can't be helped.

Shonan Manuela and Sweep Feet I think, peforms better in tougher races. As for Queen's Walk and Cervinia, there are chances for them to slide into second or third place, though the possibility for them to win is not high in my humble opinion.

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8:39 p.m. Since it's the second crown race, the barrier draw was held today and the result was announced in the afternoon.

I was hoping Safira would draw an inner post, but that didn't happen. Hold on. Pareja and Shonan Manuela are far apart, which means there could be a chance for the pace to get a bit faster. Will go and check if there's been an Oaks run in a tight lap before.

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Caterpillar