6:32 p.m. Happy New Year everyone! Hope you're enjoying the holidays while I'm on another year-end-New-Year shift to type as fast as I can wearing dragon scale gloves. It is kind of frustrating but well, I can't complain when people on the Japan Sea side are struck by an earthquake (and Tsunami) at the beginning of this year.

What a turbulant start of year! My sympathy to those who are in fear and insecureness. It might sound bossy or selfish while I'm far away, but please, please do not give up on life. Please live. No matter how tough your life may become. There will come a day when you feel thankful (and happy) of just being alive.

Have taken off my gloves, now. Who cares if it's cold in here, people in Toyama or Ishikawa or Niigata should be freezing. And speaking of starts, I've already started my preparation for Kinpai. I know I'm saying this every year, but I'm willing and eager to win both this year.

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Caterpillar

6:21 p.m. Let's start from acessing Nakayama Kinpai since I haven't won it for as long as I can remember. I've heard somewhere that high performers of Nakayama Kinpai links with that of Arima Kinen, so let's start from checking it out.

Turns out that Nakayama Kinpai doesn't exactly reflect the pedigree backgrounds of the top 3 finishers of Arima Kinen. Perhaps I should think these two races are irrelevant? Still, I should probably keep in mind that the track condition isn't all that tough as the annual beginning of the year.

The past 10 years' results show that the tough, powerful European pedigreed horses are doing well. I think this race requires horses of long-lasting speed as well as power. Also, horses that finished within 5th place in their previous races are doing well, too. Not to mention there are some horses that suddenly performed well while they've miserably sunk in their previous races. But I reckon such horses must all have good reason for their huge losses. Otherwise they wouldn't have been able to perform well. After all, they are only horses, living animals.

Will check out my notes later and see what I can find.

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Caterpillar

6:51 p.m. I screwed up. Was going to work on my preparation but there was the Shangrila Frontier marathon on TV which I recorded yesterday, and have inadvertently watched an episode, after I got home from the annual New Year Ten-don. Before I knew it, I've watched the whole season.

Well, I can't blame myself since it was fun. Fun beats all except hunger. Too much time spent, though. Now it's time to enjoy a different type of fun with the races.

Have checked my old notes and it said the similar thing about pedigree background that powerful horses (powerful enough to perform well on soft tracks) with long-lasting speed which perform better in a flow that would take more than 35 seconds for the last 3 furlongs would be the target for Nakayama Kinpai.

It also said not to underestimate the most favored horse because they become one of the top 3 finishers at the rate of over 70%.

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Caterpillar

8:45 p.m. Tapping the keyboard desperately to enter data. It can't be helped as it's the result of spending too much time watching Shangrila Frontier or Spy Family.

Meanwhile, the entry has been closed for Kinpai, which is a relief considering the number of horses that were entered in both races, though both of them have turned out to be big-field races with 17 horses running Nakayama and 18, Kyoto.

I'm still in the middle of Nakayama, Kyoto competely untouched when Friday is coming up. Will I be able to make it on time? I'm not sure. I'm really not sure. Have been wondering who this jockey Piechulek was. Turns out he's a Prix de l'Arc winner.

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Caterpillar

9:23 p.m. Oh, no. I won't make it. Had to spend most of the day preparing for work tomorrow. Can't tell you how many times I've cursed myself today for not taking offs until next Monday. I will, definitely will, next year.

And why am I still typing? Didn't I start the preparation earlier this week? Then why is the Kyoto file still blank? And Nakayama? How come most of the horses are still left? Ah. Part of my time has been wasted on moving iTunes from my old lap-top to this desk-top, taking backup for my iPad for its update.

So I still haven't decided which horse to buy yet, I'm sorry. Why, I look like a good example for "He who chases two hares will catch neither." The only clue I have now is that Nakayama Kinpai will be run on course C, which means that the damaged part would be covered and it could become a fast track. Not to mention the innerpost drawers needs your attention but at the same time you need to be careful about horses sweeping up the outside.

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Caterpillar

6:57 p.m. Getting right ot the point. Did I place my bets on Kinpai? As a matter of fact, I did. The reslts? Do you really wnt to know? As you can easily imagine, it was a disaster both Nakayama and Kyoto.

I didn't even recognize the winning horse of Kyoto Kinpai, the race was already running when I came back from a potty break. The horses I put my hopes on with just A quick scan were nowhere to be seen. The best perfermoer from my bet was Tudo de Bom finishing 3rd.

Nakayama was slightly closer as two of the horses I had on my trio wheel finished 2nd and 3rd. But the winner was Licancabur, the one I'd deleted at an early stage. I would have been better off if I'd keyed Meiner Chrysola.

Am very tired from overworking since yesterday as well as sleep deprived. I need some rest.

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Caterpillar

6:50 p.m. At the beginning of the year things tend to get indigested. Not just the Osechi dishes but the races, too as they're un on irregular schedule. You need some time off to rest and digest them so that you can reset and start over again.

So I've decided to take this week off (from the race) to digest the ones I've missed, Hopeful Stakes and the two Kinpais. Am planning to make a restart hopefully, from next Sunday.

Before I launch on my review, I downloaded the new racing calendar from JRA. There were two types distributed and I've been downloading the one titled "Graded Races Calendar" but this year I downloaded the other one in hopes that they included the grade race schedule with the race track schedule.

Have imported the JRA calendar onto Google Calendar and now it only shows Nakayama Keibajo, Kokura Keibajo and Kyoto Keibajo. The grade race schedule! Grrrr!

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Caterpillar

7:49 p.m. Have downloaded the grade race calendar from JRA and replaced it with the former one, or so I thought I did. Somehow, though my smartphone calendar now shows both the track schedule and the grade race schedule, blotting out a day's space with JRA racing schedule. Might look into it later but there isn't much of a problem so might leave it this way. After all, I got what I wanted in the first place if you look on the bright side of it.

Reviewing the races including today's Shinzan Kinen. I wasn't sure what Kyoto's track condition may be like, as the winning records of yesterday's turf races all seemed mundane or even unsatisfactory for each class. Perhaps the track is not as fast as I expected, more power-demanding?

I picked five horses Noble Roger, Taiki Vainqueur, Ecoro Bloom, Showman Fleet, and Night Slugger for Shinzan Kinen before the race was run, to see how the outcome will be. The results, you already know. Water Licht wasn't my idea but plausible considering the pace was quite tough.

The finishing record was again, not remarkable but the American genes were dominant in all of the top three finishers, while the horses of my choice that sank all had European blood. This suggests that the track could be fast despite the finishing records. Need further research for Nikkei Shinshun-hai.

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Caterpillar

8:22 p.m. Have managed to check out all the horses that performed well on Kyoto turf since Jannuary 6th. Indeed, it was a lot of work but I think it has been rewarding only if it was a wee bit.

What I've learned is that during the 6th which was the opening day for this year's races at Kyoto, horses having Sunday Silence in their background performed well to dominate most of the top 3 in all turf races held that day, with an occasional Maurice sireline or Epiphaneia sireline. This means that the turf condition was apparently firm and fast.

There's been a change in trend however, from around race 10 on the 7th. The tough European sires started to emerge. Shinzan Kinen clearly was an exception to this trend with horses with American background finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd. So now I understand that it was because of the tight pace in which American blood shows high aptitude.

Hope that's one step forward.

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Caterpillar

8:23 p.m. Working late. Now that we've seen the latest (so far) trend on Kyoto turf condition, let's take a look at the past results of Nikkei Shinshun-hai to see if there are any particular features.

The last three years have finished in a relatively big payout though they were all run at Chukyo, not Kyoto. Better watch out. In the earlier years, either the most favored or the second has performed well in most cases except year 2015, when it has been a full-field race of 18 horses.

Perhaps it could become another race on the favored side as there are only 15 horses entered this year as of today. But then, it's a handicapped race so must be careful. And from what I learned yesterday, it's likely that horses with European blood to perform well. Ha! There's a chance for my hard work to be fully rewarded!

My motivation hit the ceiling to shrivel receiving a message. Work message. Have to work tomorrow, darn.

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Caterpillar

8:23 p.m. A meeting with one of my clients finished around six thirty and I was finally allowed to get back to my preparations for Nikkei Shinshun-hai. I wish they'd just leave me alone with the races and I'll be as happy as can be. In reality, though one has to eat, sleep, work, and stay healthy until you're too old that no one gives a damn about you.

Back with the horses, it suddenly hit me that Sunday Silence descendants occupied the top 3 of race 9, a Derby-distance race run on the 7th at Kyoto, while the tough European sirelines had already started to appear from earlier races. Perhaps this might be the case for long distance races since the past results of Nikkei Shinshun-hai also show a high rate of Sunday descendants performing well instead of European types.

Well, I've already crossed out 5 horses from my list of 14 horses eventually entered. Will try reflecting the pedigree background tomorrow or later. Need to get to sleep early tonight, have got a medical chek-up tomorrow.

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Caterpillar

7:21 p.m. Recently, I've updated my iPad and now it's refusing to get charged. Last night I plugged in my iPad to charge it but the battery hadn't been charged after nearly five hours and of all things, it displayed an alert that the device was putting the charging action on hold because the temperature was too low.

Hey! Since when did Apple become so great as to order its customers to charge devices in a comfortably warmer/cooler environment while the customer himself/herself is sleeping in the same room? Since when did Apple devices become so spoiled? And it demands to share your location information when you try to optimize the action? Get off your high horse!

Meanwhile the barrier draw has been announced and the most favored Satono Glanz has drawn the outmost post with the second favored Savona next to him. Difficult times for the horses, too I guess.

I hated to budge but ended up charging iPad in the relatively warmer living room this morning. Spoiled kid, really.

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Caterpillar

8:53 p.m. Confused. Thinking this way and that after brain work, I'm not sure what to make of this handicapped race anymore.

At first, I thought it was the 4-year-olds that had the advantage because of their freshness and the lighter weight. But then, Satono Glanz is carrying 57.5kg, the second heaviest of all horses entered while other 4-year-olds carry weights varying from 56kg to 53kg. That must mean Satono Glanz is evaluated higher than the other 4-year-olds. Yet, the horse has drawn an outmost post, which I'm assuming is a diadvantage on current Kyoto turf.

So I tried to find older horses starting from inner posts that might have the chance to perform well and realized that it was hard to pick one horse. And when I think about the pedigree background while they haven't run any long distance races at Kyoto today, I feel like I've got too many loose ends it's out of my hands. I'm completely lost.

On a desperate attempt, I'm keying Satono Glanz in hopes that Yuga would handle this situation well. After all, Christophe isn't riding. On the wheel would be Libyan Glass, Red Valiente, Blow the Horn, Shinryokuka, and Savona.

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Caterpillar

6:58 p.m. Damn. The orders were wrong I mean, I'd bought exactas and trifectas. Should've went for the trio but then, the payout wouldn't have been satisfactory for me, though.

It was, a difficult race. I was thinking of choosing horses that performed well in their previous races since I guessed the pace to be average. Yet there weren't horses that won in their previous races, so I got confused and it all became so hard to make assumptions. But the pace actually got tighter than I'd imagined.

Will do a full-fledged review hopefully, tomorrow. See if I could get a better shot at AJCC oming up.

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Caterpillar

7:24 p.m. Review done. Thre were towo reasons for the loss one, that I'd misread the pace and two, I wasn't sure enough what to make of the track condition from the high performing horses' pedigree background. So it was all my fault, I admit.

I often get confused when people start talking about the track consuming more power or otherwise and the results of the races don't actually back up what they say. Take for example, Nikkei Shinshun-hai. The winning record was 2minutes 23.7 seonds. That's not bad I mean, if it was a power-consuming turf condition, wouldn't the winning record be like 24 or 25 seconds?

But then, I'd completely missed that there are cases when the winning record is quite fast while the turf is power-consuming like Mainichi Ohkan in 2020. Salios won the race with an astonishing 1 minute 45.5 seconds on good to firm track. If the turf condition was firm, he'd proobably finished a scond faster. What I'm saying is that the time record does not automatically reflect the condition of the turf as it consists of multiple factors, not just turf condition.

I should have searched for the fast turf records to make the basline, then compare them with the current race results in order to make a right decision about the turf condition.

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Caterpillar

5:50 p.m. Looks like we're in for some nasty weather this weekend. We're actually having high wind here in Tokyo which may be a sign for the coming change in weather. Come to think of it, we did have snowfall last Saturday though only for a short time.

We're expecting rain (or even snow depending on the temperature high above) on Saturday and partly through Sunday. This suggests a good to firm or soft track condition on Nakayama where AJCC will be run. AJCC is a characteristic race running 2200m on Nakayama turf, perhaps it's the only 2200m turf grade race on Nakayama since I can't recall any other.

Currently, Nakayama turf is appearing to be firm and fast with horses with American blood performing well since the opening with Nakayama Kinpai. But things could take a rapid turn what with the weather. Luckily, we have a turf 2200m race (although in lower class) on Saturday, so I might be able to get a grasp of what the track may be like.

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Caterpillar

7:40 p.m. Correction. Centlight Kinen and All Comer wer also run on Nakayama turf 2200m though these are both run in fall. I just couldn't recall them yesterday. What these races all share in common is that usually, horses passing the last corner within the 5th or 6th position from the leading horse have the most advantage, consideering the tight corners and comparatively shorter homestretch of Nakayama.

The top 3 finishers of the past 10 years are dominated by either Sunday Silence line or horses with European blood. It seems better for horses with Sunday Silence sireline to be strengthened by European blood in their broodmare sire. Well, this I believe would be a must when the track is bound to get soft.

And if a tough track condition is to be assumed, it must be better to pick horses that don't have remained damage. Either horses that are fresh back from a break or the ones that came back and have been pepped up in their previous races would be good targets.

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Caterpillar

8:13 p.m. Oh, God. Last night I was getting ready to sleep when I came up with something to write. But I decided it could wait and went to sleep as I was quite tired and now I can't remember what that was AT ALL. Nothing. Zilch.

It must have been something about AJCC though I have absolutely no idea what... Sigh. Am I getting too old? What's wrong with my memory? Am I demented? Or is it my attention probelm?

Whatever it is, at least I got all of today's tasks done including typing in the data for AJCC. I can't make heads nor tails before the barrier draw anyway, so might as well call it a day and go to sleep early. Yes, that might help reduce attention problems. Sleep is important, you know. Look at Shohei Ohtani.

Besides, who knows I might even recall the topic tomorrow.

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Caterpillar

8:13 p.m. The barriers have been drawn however, unexpected work came up and I've only been able to take a glimpse of it, grrrr.

Have finished my tasks though my time for sitting at the computer seems to be up for the day. How come I'm always so rushed with everything while I'm trying to plan out ahead? Things to do pop up here and there, unexpected things come up to barge into my well-planned(?) schedule. Nah, it's not well-planned, that's why I get interrupted.

Just quickly checked the weekend forecast, which have been threatened with rain or snow for the past couple of days and now it says we're having full-fledged rain of four to seven milimeters per hour from Sunday morning to past noon. The rain is said to start falling from Saturday evening (damn, my race for reference has gone to waste now!) and keep falling until around the same time Sunday.

If it turns to snow, there'd even be a question of the race running in the first place.

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Caterpillar

8:43 p.m. Have been quite excited by the news of JAXA's moon landing mission with SLIM that it had succeeded in the landing. I was also intrigued by the two little robots Lev 1 and Lev 2 that have been released prior to the actual landing as they were both unique in their own way.

But all the excitement has almost been washed away struggling to assume what AJCC would be like. I've set myself a reference race as mentioned earlier though it has merely become another source for confusion, since the results showed horses with American background performing better while I've been guessing otherwise for tomorrow. I'll have to say it all depends on how much it rains (or maybe not rain).

Have been torn which to key Meiner Virtus or Boccherini and after pondering, decided to key both. On the wheel would be Chrominance (one will have to buy Christophe on all occasions), Admire Halley, and Karate. Maybe will buy exactas of Karate first Meiner Virtus, Chrominance (one will have to buy Christophe on all occasions), Boccherini second, just in case.

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Caterpillar

7:02 p.m. Another blunder! Chuck Nate!

Thinking back, there was a split second I thought of including him im my formation though had dismissed the idea because he was a Heart's Cry descendant and that I believed the track condition would be too tough for him. But then, he had European background in his broddmare sire of Roberto line, which was the only reason I'd bought him in Argentina Republic Cup.

Treating Chuck Nate too lightly while keying Meiner Virtus who also contributed to my Argentina Republic win, I've incurred divine punishment. Nevertheless, the results of the race may be showing a change in the trend that European blood is finally performing well on Nakayama turf, where it's been dominated by American blood since the end of last year.

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Caterpillar

7:46 p.m. And just when the trend is changing, Nakayama has come to an end replaced by Tokyo. Well, it is the winter dirt race season until February Stakes.

Have checked out the past 10 years' results for Negishi Stakes in a rush to learn that horses with American blood in either their sire line or their broodmare sire line are doing well. Of course. It's a dirt race on Tokyo 1400m which means that the toughness of European blood is not required. Instead, what you need is speed, lasting speed to cover the long homestretch.

But then, most horses currently entered have American blood since they're all dirt horses. Will have to look for more clues, though I'm drawn towards Emperor Wkea for now. Think it would be better if the horse draws an inner post since it's looking like a big-field race.

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Caterpillar

8:05 p.m. Horses from Musashino Stakes seems to be doing well in Negishi Stakes, or so it seems. No surprise there, as the two races are quite similar except for the distance.

Not to mention, the winner and runner-up of Musashino S are performing well while horses that lost in luke warm 3rd to 5th place also seem to do well given that they'd either performed well in their races before Musashino S, or have pepped up in another race after Musashino S.

As for horses that sank below 6th place in Musashino Stakes, it seems to be difficult to make a come back in Negishi Stakes. There are only three horses that fall in this description T M South Dan, Surise Nova, and Admire Royal, with T M and Sunrise raising their performance in the race after Musashino Stakes.

Admire Royal was the only horse in the pat 10 years that lost miserably in its previous race Musashino Stakes, yet finishedd 3rd in Negishi Stakes. But then, the loss could be considered as a backlash of his Nanbu-hai 3rd place. Additionally, the horse had produced good results in dirt 1400m.

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Caterpillar

7:32 p.m. So I run through the entry list of Negishi Stakes and WALA! Among the 19 horses currently entered, there were only two horses that have run Musashino Stakes, Tagano Beauty and Verdad Imeru.

Tagano Beauty has finished 2nd in Musashino Stakes though personally, I think 1400mm would suit him better. However, the horse is a trailer and would need the help of a tight lap. It might also be better for him to draw an inner post. He'd be a good candidate for the wheel.

Verdad Imeru on the other hand, hasn't performed well in either Musashino Stakes or his previous race Capella Stakes. It could have been because the horse had left-over damage from Enif Stakes or Green Channel Cup, or both. I don't see much improvement in his recent races, so might reconsider this one.

Ha! There was one more horse that'd run in Musashio Stakes, Helios! Ah, but making a come-back from 10th place won't go that easy. 1400m might be better for this horse too since he'd finished 2nd in Negishi Stakes 2 years ago, though winning Perseus Stakes could be too weak as the reason for his loss in Musashino Stakes. Another re-consider candidate.

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Caterpillar

8:30 p.m. The entries have been closed for the weekend races while I've been working and 16 horses are running in Negishi Stakes this year. Hmm, a big-field race as I expected it'd be.

Another look at the past results told me that horses running in Capella Stakes recently have preformed well in Negishi Stakes, only when they had finished 1st or 2nd in Capella Stakes. Sounds convincing as Capella Stakes is a dirt sprint race if I remeber correctly. That means Verdad Imeru, the only horse this year experiencing Capella Stakes previously losing in 6th place should be removed from the target, roger that.

The same can be said for Galaxy Stakes, too and it's possible that the horse should at least finish within 3rd from the top in Galaxy Stakes when performing as well in Negishi Stakes, or so it seems. That would put a question mark on Iolite, though his performance has improved greatly compared to Miyako Stakes. For third row, perhaps? Worth considering, I guess.

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Caterpillar

8:22 p.m. Okay, so the barriers are drawn. It doesn't look like the pace is going to be tight if Helios is going to take the lead, but you never know. The first half tends to speed away due to the course layout and nearly half of the competitors are shortening their distances. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a couple of horses getting disharmonized to raise the pace.

If the pace gets tight, horses keeping their positions behind would have the advantage. Like well, Tagano Beauty of course, or Sunrise Flame or Alpha Mom. But then, if the pace didn't get so tight, it certainly would be better to choose horses that could keep their positions higher. Troubling matter, the pace.

Still have another day so will sleep on it and see if I could come up with a good idea. Now, will you excuse me, my hands and feet are getting numb and I'm freezing.

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Caterpillar

9:20 p.m. Oh my, oh my! I didn't think it was this late! And I'm still stuck with Negishi Stakes, what shall I do?

I've come down to the point that perhaps Emperor Wakea might not do so well as I'd hoped against upper grade horses. So I decided to give him a pass this time. Then I decided that Helios would need another race before improving his performance greatly and deleted him, too. Though I couldn't quite ditch Verdad Imeru seeing the horse has finished 2nd in Green Channel Cup carrying 60 kg, a kind of weight you rarely see these days.

Currently, I'm torn between keying either Paraiba Tourmaline or Tagano Beauty while I can't quite get rid of the idea of Sunrise Flame winning. Well, I'll have to choose one horse to key from the three. On the wheel would be, Verdad Imeru, Shamal, and Alpha Mom. Don't think I have enough room for Arm's Reign, I'm afraid. But he seems threatening.

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Caterpillar

8:08 p.m. Emperor Wakea, the horse I ditched won Negishi Stakes with Arms Reign in 2nd (told you he's threatening) and Sunrise Flame in 3rd. Yeah well, that's the natural course of things. I mean, if Helios takes the lead and no other horse barges in, the pace would settle for average and all you need is an upfront position and the speed to react when the jockey gives a go sign.

Wonder what's with Paraiba Tourmaline, though. 9th place is quite a big loss. Maybe shortening the distance didn't work out for her as she has been performing well by extending the distance. Or perhaps the horse has just went over her prime? I kind of saw that coming since her performance has been getting poorer for the past couple of races.

Anyway, this year's Negishi Stakes wasn't in high level. In fact, the time record is the worst since 2014. Have just done a quick search, but it's the worst since Negishi Stakes has been turned into a dirt 1400m from 1200m in 2004.

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Caterpillar

7:35 p.m. What happens when Negishi Stakes ends up in low level is that horses from Negishi Stakes won't perform well in February Stakes. That is, given that February Stakes is held with high level G1 class horses.

Time record isn't the only scale to evaluate a race level, but when Negishi Stakes has finished taking over 1 minute 23.4 seconds, the top 3 finishers of Negishi Stakes hasn't performed well in February Stakes except for Yuranoto's third place in 2019. Let me add here, though that February Stakes 2019 was run with only 14 horses which means the level of this year's February Stakes might not have been as high as it annualy has been.

Since Lemon Pop is not entering February Stakes this year, there is a chance for the G1 to become a lower level race. Still, I can't approve Emperor Wakea wholeheartedly, not for February Stakes.

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Caterpillar

8:34 p.m. Before thinking about February Stakes, I ought to be thinking about this week's Tokyo Shinbun-hai. I'm not buying Kisaragi-sho, as it's a 3-year-olds-only race. Besides, I think I've won Tokyo Shinbun-hai last year. It might give me another chance.

Tokyo Shinbun-hai is one of those races that repeaters appear now and then, just like Yasuda Kinen. And this year, the only horse who has the chance to become a repeater is Win Carnelian.

Masked Diva would definitely the most favored (because of her Shuka-sho performance), but I have reasons to believe Win Carnelian could perform well if not win. The horse performs well on fast tracks. I've just checked last week's results of Tokyo, and the time record of a 3-wins class mile race was 1 minute 32.5 seconds.

There are other horses that might take the lead, so it'd be better for Win Carnelian to draw an inner post. If he could runaway at good speed, he won't sink that easily.

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Caterpillar

8:07 p.m. Waiting for an important reply which decides whether I have to work tomorrow or not, though there's been no incoming messages up until now. Still unprepared, I don't know what to do if they tell me later I have to work tomorrow. Well, if I'm unprepared, then that's their fault not letting me know earlier.

Horses currently entered in February Stakes has been announced and as I feared, there are only two dirt G1 winners, King's Sword and Mick Fire. I'm not sure if they fit Tokyo dirt.

As for Tokyo Shinbun-hai, I've checked my notes rom last year which said, "4-year-old mares can be good candidates if they've performed well on Tokyo mile." If I followed that advice, Umbrail and maybe Ravel should be included in my formation not the now-most-favored Masked Diva.

Still no sign of incoming message whatsoever, humph.

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Caterpillar