Goes to Extreme

(FRI) November 28th, 2025

8:58 p.m. From the lineup, I'm assuming either Sunrise Earth or Ho O Biscuits would take the lead. I'm not sure what the pace will be like, but there's a strange trend about the pace of Japan Cup that, as long as the race runs on firm track condition, the pace gets either tight or slow. So it goes to extreme, no moderately average pace. Perhaps it's because the course consists of long straights, though I don't know.

Another trend I recognized from the past 10 years' results, is that when an inner post drawer runs away, the pace tends to get tight. When it becomes a tight-lapped race, the formation of the horses usually grow longer, lengthwise, which gives chances to inner post drawers that don't like to be pressured. On the other hand, a lengthwise formation of horses could disadvantage outer post drawers as it would make it harder for horses from behind to get good positions once the formation is stretched.

Therefore, what I should do is to narrow down the candidates centering inner post drawers. If I can't find enough potential horses, I can always cast a wider net including the outer posts.

The End

Caterpillar