5:29 p.m. There were a couple of horses that seemed to want to go up front, so I'd guessed the lap would be average though this turned out to be my mistake today. The lap lagged as though it was a long distance race.

As a result, the race became a ready-set-go instantaneous speed contest. The fact that a miler like Persian Knight cut in 2nd place proves it. And yet again, it's you, Fukunaga... Can't he do something about coming within 3rd place when I'm not buying him, and blowing it when I am?

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Caterpillar

2:20 p.m. The classic races are starting from this week with Ohka-sho. Must shift change my mind as classic races need different approaches to older horses' races.

There's been some unexpected jump-in work and I haven't had time to look at the entry list closely, but think it better not to go against Lucky Lilac. She's ahead of other horses she's already raced against, so it would probably be the ones she hasn't that have the slightest chance to beat her.

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Caterpillar

4:54 p.m. Hmmm...the more I look at the racing career of Lucky Lilac, the more I feel like she's going to win...

She has cleared her first race this season also known as the Ohka-sho trial, Tulip Sho with an ideal win. An easy win taking over the front runners from the upper position, fresh back from recess with her weight growing as much as 10kg, meaning that she has yet to be in her top gear.

Admit it Cat, there's no other option for the key.

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Caterpillar

2:34 p.m. It has become sunny and almost hot as a summer day today, though there seems to be a change in weather thanks to the rain front, and we are expecting some rain towards the end of the week. I was a bit worried that it might affect the track condition of Hanshin however, the forecast assured it will be sunny on the day of Ohka-sho. Not that Lucky Lilac will disadvantage from the trac condition, but for others.

Meanwhile the prestigeous Dubai races have been run last weekend, without any Japanese horse winning. So what were you doing, Rey De Oro? My personal opinion is that he should have stayed and entered Osaka-hai instead, though it also turned out to be a slow race.

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Caterpillar

4:05 p.m. The barrier has been announced! Should be as Ohka-sho is a classic.

Lucky Lilac in post number 1, Amalfi Coast in 2, Liberty Heights in 3, Encore Plus in 4, Red Sakuya in 5, Scarlet Color in 6, Tosen Bless in 7, Harlem Line in 8, Lily Noble in 9, Aonb harr in 10, Cordierite in 11, Dernier Or in 12, Almon Eye in 13, Red Regnant in 14, Primo Scene in 15, Finifty in 16, Mau Lea in 17 and Tsuzumimon in 18.

Lucky Lilac is already the most favored not to mention, but the odds would get even lower given this barrier draw. The outer posts are generally a disadvantage for Hanshin 1600m, but it wouldn't be much of a problem for Tsuzumimon as she goes up front. More troubling is the news that jumped in this morning, that Danon Premium has scratched off from Satsuki-sho... what the...!?

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Caterpillar

It was a hectic day. I hardly had time for potty breaks and in the mad rush, I've completely forgotten to write this "Murmur". Sorry!

Meanwhile I have been pondering my selection for Ohka-sho. Lucky Lilac's win odds is low enough to make me chicken out from keying her. But then, she's got great potential...

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Caterpillar

1:30 p.m. Still wondering if this should be my last call. But anyway.

Will jump off the cliff and key Lucky Lilac. If she goes down, I'd go down with her. On the wheel would be Tosen Bless, Almond Eye, Primo Scene, Finifty, and Tsuzumimon. Am still undecided about Liberty Heights. Lily Noble and Maulea bound for the not buy list.

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Caterpillar

6:34 p.m. This year's Ohka-sho was a high-leve race. I can't be for sure if these fillies would perform well in the years to come, though the top two horses were outstanding, as you can see from the race record.

Lucky Lilac has been beaten, and I pay respect to Almond Eye for the great win, though Lucky Lilac did a good race especially, considering her racing schedule. It was easier for Almond Eye since she hadn't been in either Hanshin Juvenile Fillies nor Tulip-sho. Winning both these two races and still hanging on in 2nd place in Ohka-sho, is not enough to dim Lucky Lilac when you have a tough rival to beat like Almond Eye. I have a hunch that Japanese Oaks would be the match between these two.

The only disappointment was that Kawada's Lily Noble has put up more than a fight against Tosen Bless.

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Caterpillar

5:12 p.m. Okay, I'm stuck.

I was going to key Danon Premium for Satsuki-sho since last year and now he scratches off from the race a week before he runs. What am I going to do?

Among the members on the entry list, the expected most faovred as of now is Wagnerian followed by Stelvio. No wonder. And I hate to have to think that I should bring them in to my picture while I've been simulating Satsuki-sho over and over in my head with Danon Premium, not Stelvio or Wagnerain.

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Caterpillar

3:59 p.m. News tells that Lucky Lilac has been sent out on a recess. Good thinking as that's what she needs most now. The horse is tired. And because the owner and the crew have made the right decision, she'll come back fresh and charged to fight the Japanese Oaks. You wait there, Almond Eye.

While I've been wondering about my key horse for Satsuki-sho, my eye stopped on a name on the entry list. Oken Moon. Oh yes, he was the winner of Kyodo Tsuhin-hai. I remembered I was quite surprised by his performance. Hmmm... might be interesting.

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Caterpillar

2:22 p.m. Rapidly gaining interest against Oken Moon, since I don't want to set either Wagnerian nor Stelvio as my key.

Horses that won Kyodo Tsushin-hai has been doing relatively well in Satsuki-sho for the past ten years. The race record for this year's Kyodo Tsushin-hai says the winner has potential. Oken Moon has already experienced the tricky Nakayama 2,000m course, in which he earned himself a win. My only anxiety concerning Oken Moon for now is whether he performs better with full-gate horses or not.

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Caterpillar

3:21 p.m. The barriers for Satsuki-sho has been announced! Wonder which post that horse drew?

Time Flyer in post number 1, Wagnerian in 2, Gendarme in 3, Three Helios in 4, Kitano Commandeur in 5, Aithon in 6, Epoca d'Oro in 7, K T Clever in 8, Oken Moon in 9, Generale Uno in 10, Meiner Fanrong in 11, Grail in 12, Double Sharp in 13, Sans Rival in 14, Stelvio in 15 and Jun Valerot in 16.

Erm... Stelvio will have to go up front to lessen the disadvantage of the outer post he drew. Wagnerian might have a hard time although he drew an inner post especially, when and if he doesn't recover from his damages. If he ever screws up the start, it will become critical. Oken Moon well, I can't make heads nor tails about his post since I'm not sure where he would perform best, though the middle (not too outward nor inward) is always a safe bet.

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Caterpillar

6:34 p.m. What!? My Oken Moon is the second favored? What's going on?

I've been stuck at work all day and haven't been able to check the odds. Look what happened. Currently, Wagnerian stands as the most favored followed by Oken Moon and Time Flyer. It seems everyone is concerened about the track condition getting sofr, since rain is expected for the weekend. Well, same here, though.

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Caterpillar

5:33 p.m. I am busy. I've been busy since the start of April. It's only been two weeks and I'm drained. I'm too exhausted to know what I'm thinking or saying at this point. I will appreciate if you keep that in mind before we move on to Satsuki-sho.

My key is Stelvio. You might be wondering what happened to Oken Moon. Well, I decided he should rather be on the wheel since he might be a bit tired. On the wheel would be, Time Flyer, Gendarme, Kitano Commandeur, Epoca d'Oro, Oken Moon, and Grail, for the moment. Time Flyer and Epoca d'Oro is on the borderline so might not be on my buy list tomorrow. Wagnerian, is not on my list for reasons you know why.

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Caterpillar

7:19 p.m. The track condition and the lap. Those were everything.

Horses that were suspected of fatigue all sank; Time Flyer, Wagnerian, Aithon, K T Clever, Double Sharp and even Stelvio. Christophe, you've disappointed me in 4th place again. Kitano Commandeur just wasn't a top category horse as well as Oken Moon who struggled with keeping cool. The result seems to prove how Hopeful Stakes at year-end leaves a huge damage on the horse.

Perhaps if the lap had slackened a bit and the track was firm, things might have been slightly different.

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Caterpillar

12:48 p.m. About the new Satsuki-sho champion, Epoca d'Oro.

He's had a tough race so the horse might be tired or stressed. Though as long as he can race like yesterday, up front in his own pace, it is likely for him to come within 3rd place again in his probably next race, Japanese D'erby.

Danon Premium would be running as well as this year's Aoba-sho winner, so it won't be easy to win. Still, he's got a chance. The key, not to mention, would be how Epoca d'Oro recovers from his damage.

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Caterpillar

4:09 p.m. My, oh my. This site has been ranked number one in the ranking as of this afternoon... What the...

Another surprising news today was that Clincher and Gendarme has been announced their possibility of challenging this year's Grand Prix de l'Arc de Triopmhe. The owner has said that if Clincher performs well in Tennno-sho, he will be entering the Arc as he thinks the horse has more aptitude for the deep, soft track on Longchamp than Kizuna (same owner) who came in 4th place in 2013.

As for Gendarme, the horse may be entering Breeder's Cup Turf depending on the results of Japanese D'erby. My, oh my.

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Caterpillar

2:40 p.m. There is no G1 race held until next weekend when the consecutive G1 series begins with Tenno-sho (spring). Will have to prepare by then however, I'm having a busy time of year that I haven't been able to spare time for the things I enjoy to do. Cry.

Flora Stakes run this weekend is a trial race for the coming Japanese Oaks. Every year the winner of this race becomes favored in Japanese Oaks as a good match-up candidate for the Ohka-sho winner. So might as well check it out, though I have no confidence in whether I can actually get up from my futon Sunday.

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Caterpillar

2:14 p.m. After the trials comes Tenno-sho spring, which I've been worrying my head about.

I was overjoyed when Cheval Grand was announced to race in Osaka-hai followed by Tennno-sho spring, as that would be a perfect racing schedule to boost up his performance. However, Cheval has sunk in 13th place in Osaka-hai. This is not good.

In order to come back from 13th place, the horse will need all the advantage he can use: soft track condition, inner post in a full-gate race, tight lap plus not to mention, his condition must be good. What's been worrying me is that Cheval Grand may have more damage from Japan Cup and Arima Kinen than I had imagined. If so, there's no point in taking advantages over other horses concerning the race condsition. He will simply be unfit to race.

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Caterpillar

4:54 p.m. It's been a tough week but I'm getting closer to the end of this spring-start craze. It seems that people in this country tend to feel they have to start something with the call of April, perhaps because out fiscal year begins from April as well as schools.

Pieces of news coming in. Suave Richard is going to enter Yasuda Kinen with Mirco on his back. He's a Hearts Cry descendant, which means shortening distances won't work as an advantage. Lucky Lilac has been announced that she might challenge the Arc sepending on her Japanese Oaks' performance, to earn redemption of her father, Orfevre.

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Caterpillar

2:28 p.m. Races on Tokyo, Fukushima and Kyoto tracks start today. Milers' Cup, a prep race for Yasuda Kinen will be run tomorrow on Kyoto turf.

I'm not going to buy betting tickets this week as I'd rather save my money for next week's Tennno-sho. But if I would, I'd probably key Air Spinel back in Yutaka's hands. That's something quite reliable. The number of horses competing is also perfect for Spinel, too. Plus, he's just been back from a break. Sungrazer, Dashing Blaze, Logi Cry, Black Moon and Guanciale would be on the wheel.

Oscar Ruby and Usubenino Kimi in Flora Stakes need to recover from their weight loss, Normcore might do well if she goes up front, Satono Walkure could lag behind at the start so it largely depends on how Mirco leads her. Though it's a fillie's race, anything could happen.

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Caterpillar

6:52 p.m. I was out today so I haven't seen the races on real time basis. The results tell me that Sungrazer has won Milers' Cup while Satono Walkure has earned herself a ticket to the Japanese Oaks. Looks like Mirco has led her perfectly just like he did with Suave Richard in Osaka-hai.

However, it puts me on alert because it is unlikely for Satono Walkure to win the Japanese Oaks. Whilst she has a very short career, the horse has been racing in longer distance races of over 2,000 meters, with her previous one being 2,400 meters. It is easy to think she might win in the same distance as she already has, though Satono Walkure has been gradually losing weight. This is not good for a Deep Impact descendant.

Plus, she has been forced to do a power-play today, which leaves a lot of damage on the horse. It only reminds me of last year's Admirable, who was in the same situation. Yes, he came in 3rd in the Japanese D'erby, but look what happened after that. If Satono Walkure losed more weight by the Japanese Oaks, she's bound to get off from the top 3.

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Caterpillar

3:15 p.m. And this week, Tennno-sho (spring) will be run, but a problem has come up.

Yutaka Take has had the penalty of being unable to ride for the next 4 days of races. That means he cannot ride Clincher in Tennno-sho! I was hoping I could key Clincher especially, when Cheval Grand's condition is uncertain. Now I'll have to re-think the whole thing again...

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Caterpillar

4:18 p.m. Fans were getting worried about the rider of Clincher, since whoever it is it had to be decided to have him ride the horse in his last training on Wednesday. In the JRA-related job field, Mondays are called off as the races are usually on Saturdays and Sundays, and we were getting a bit antsy.

Today it's been announced that Kosei Miura would ride Clincher filling the place of Yutaka. Hmmm. Not a bad choice, I think. This sure will be a big chance for Miura. Hope he does well.

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Caterpillar

3:25 p.m. So the rider has been decided for Clincher, and the training will probably be carried out without incident. The training will usually be held on either Wednesday or Thursday for most horses entering races that weekend, so I think I'll have more information by tomorrow.

Meanwhile, might as well check out the members of Aoba-sho on Saturday. It's a prep race for Japanese D'erby which may or may not produce a horse to beat for Epocadoro.

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Caterpillar

2:39 p.m. While I'd been going about this way and that concerning Clincher's rider or Cheval Grand's condition, the barrier draw for Tennno-sho (spring) has been announced so let's take a look.

Mikki Rocket in post number 1, Chestnut Coat in 2, Shiho in 3, Curren Mirotic in 4, Yamakatsu Raiden in 5, Ganko in 6, Ping Pong in 7, Clincher in 8, Soul Impact in 9, Satono Chronicle in 10, Cheval Grand in 11, Rainbow Line in 12, Toshin Monstera in 13, Albert in 14, Tosen Basil in 15, Smart Layer in 16, Tomiken Slava in 17.

Not a bad draw for Cheval Grand, I think he performs better starting from the outer posts. I will have to wait about his condition, for our training squad's report. Mikki Rocket has drawn a good post. On the other hand, Smart Layer didn't have her luck today. It's going to be a tough race for her, having to be swung around the outside.

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Caterpillar

2:34 p.m. It seems everyone is unsure about which horse wins, judging from the win odds with the most favored Cheval Grand at 5/1.

After I'd seen the barrier draw yesterday, there is one horse that has roused my attention. Mikki Rocket. He hasn't performed so well lately, but there doesn't seem to be a specific horse that wants to go up front to take the lead. If Mikki Rocket does take the lead, there may be a chance he could hang on within 3rd place. The thing is, I can't be sure if he'd go.

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Caterpillar

3:12 p.m. I've been having trouble coming up with which horse to key. Every horse has some down points and I can't pick out the one horse that will perform its best.

At least I've narrowed down my options to 6 horses, Mikki Rocket, Clincher, Satono Chronicle, Cheval Grand, Rainbow Line and Smart Layer. The question is the key. Which horse to key? Right now I'm torn between Clincher, Cheval and Rainbow Line. If the lap becomes average, which I'm assuming more likely, it would be either Clincher or Cheval. If the lap slackens, Rainbow Line will have his chance.

Think I'll take my time to decide.

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Caterpillar

9:02 p.m. Oh, god. Of all six horses I'd picked up yesterday, I've keyed the wrong horse; Satono Chronicle.

As a result, I ended up with the horses on my wheel dominating the bulletin from first to fifth place... Great job, me.

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Caterpillar

5:35 p.m. Not to mention, I am appalled by my own stupidity of suddenly keying Satono Chronicle instead of Cheval Grand. I mean, I've been following Cheval Grand carefully since last year, and have decided at the beginning of this year that this horse would be the ley in Tenno-sho, no matter what happens. But then, I freak out when I see him sink way lower than expected in his prep race Osaka-hai, a race that I'd told myself over and over not for Cheval to win.

And because I forget almost everything, even such important decisions I'd made myself only a couple of months ago, I will write here for my future reviewing. That even if Cheval Grand enters Takaraduka Kinen at the end of June, he probably won't perform well so next time, keep him on the wheel if ever buying.

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Caterpillar