2018/8
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8/01  The Past 4 Years

3:42 p.m. Speaking of performing well on Kokura race tracks, Triomphe has also performed well on Kokura though it was 1800 meters. If the horse can handle 1800 meters, 2,000 meters wouldn't be so different.

My recognition is that Kokura is won by Kokura specialists. But the thing is, Triomphe would probably be the most favored and the most favored hasn't come within 3rd place for the past 4 years...

The End

Caterpillar

8/02  Done Some Searching

2:56 p.m. I wondered if there were any other horses that has performed well in Kokura 1800 meters to 2,000 meters, so have done some searching.

A T Thunder, Strong Titan, Meadowlark, and Reiho Romance respectively, have come in either 1st or 2nd place in the past although they were in lower class races. That means that these horses will not perform worse just because of the course. If Kokura is one of the courses they do well at, then they must improve their performances at least from their previous races.

The End

Caterpillar

8/03  Got Screwed

5:13 p.m. The barriers have been announced for both Leaopard Stakes and Kokura Kinen. It's Friday all right.

Looks like the top three favored horses have all drawn outer pots, Triomphe in 11, Satono CHronicle in 10 and San Martin in 12. Think it wouldn't be much of a problem considering the number of horses in this race. Besides, I got screwed when I weighted the horses in the inner posts.

The End

Caterpillar

8/04  No One Interested

2:59 p.m. Since I've been losing every week, no one might be interested though I'll call it anyway.

My key horse for Kokura Kinen is Satono Chronicle. It might be just a prep race for the autumn G1 however, the horse has a chance to perform better than Tennno-sho after a break. On the wheel would be Strong Titan, Stoneware, Mount Gold, A T Thunder and Triomphe.

As for the Leopard Stakes in Niigata, it might be fun to give a shot on win and place of Yida Pegasus if it really rains as the forecast predicts.

The End

Caterpillar

8/05  Of All Times

This time of all times... I won a trio but I haven't bought the tickets.

I had some troubles with my laptop and had to reinstall the OS. Troubles kept popping up even after the reinstallation and I spent the whole day attending my laptop. I would like to have an opportunity some day, to announce a comment on how Microsoft is not responsible for their products.

The End

Caterpillar

8/06  When You Win

3:15 p.m. As I had been tending my laptop, I haven't even seen the race run. Have just been to check the results and discovered that I had a clean hit from 1st place to 6th, except for Reiho Romance that came in 4th place. Sigh. It's like this when you win.

The least compensation is that my laptop seems to have recovered its performance and that the payout wasn't so big...

The End

Caterpillar

8/07  Oju's Next Race

3:37 p.m. Looks like Ojuchousan's next race has been decided. The crew had announced earlier that Oju's goal after he's won the 5 million class was to win the Arima Kinen at year-end. Due to this, its seems they've decided it would be better to try him out on the same course, same distance and picked Kujukuri Tokubetsu, run on Nakayama turf, 2500 meters on September 22nd.

As Oju has only won a lower class race on flat turf, again we will have to wait and see if he could run in the race, because if the number of entry goes over 12 which is the limit for this race, Oju can be excluded and won't be able to compete in the race. However, the number of entries for this race has reached the limit only once in the past 8 years, so there is a good chance for Oju to run it.

If he runs, the race will gather attraction as well as the last time, and in case he wins it will definitely add more excitement to the year-end Grand Prix. The rider will be Yutaka Take, not to mention.

The End

Caterpillar

8/08  Pre-vacation Work

7:21 p.m. I've been tied up at work and just had a few minutes to take a glimpse of Sekiya Kinen.

I've always thought that winning a mile race on Niigata turf is like drawing straws and I don't have a piece of confidence in calling it. The glimpse I took on the past few years' results seem to suggest that horses that go up front have a bit of advantage, but that's about all I could gather in such a short time. It's the pre-vacation rush of work that's driving me mad.

The End

Caterpillar

8/09  Hopefully

2:57p.m. Today I had a bit more time so I checked out the past results a bit more closely.

My impression is that the winning time is fast as well as the last three furlongs, so it would be better to go up front. Otherwise, you won't be able to take over the horses in the front. For the same reason, inner post horses would have more advantage, unless horses starting from the outside posts have enough speed to go up front. Hopefully, that would help me choose the right horses.

The End

Caterpillar

8/10  Winging It

4:21 p.m. The barriers for Sekiya Kinen has been announced. The top 3 favored Primo Scene, Reliable Ace and A Shin Twinkle drew post number 12, 6 and 4, respectively. Following what I've written yesterday, it might be hard for horses like Reliable Ace as he tends to stay behind.

News has also come in that Lucky Lilac is scratcing off from Rose Stakes, a prep for Shuka-sho. Almond Eye is also winging Shuka-sho, so both of the top horses will have a question mark on their condition, I suppose.

The End

Caterpillar

8/11  Luxury Refreshment

5:18 p.m. My first day of summer vacation. Not that I'd be able to enjoy any luxury refreshment, and there's more work to do than usual thanks to the troubles with my laptop.

Still, I strived to call Sekiya Kinen. My key is Primo Scene. Let's shut our eyes to the fact that she's the most favored, as she's got a chance to do well. My only concern is the rider. On the wheel would be Frontier, A Shin Twinkle, Shonan Anthem, Lord Quest and Checchino.

The End

Caterpillar

8/12  Nail-Biting

9:20 p.m. Lord Quest didn't do so well as I'd expected and One To One came in 2nd instead. Well, at least I got the key horse right.

Have went out jogging to vent out my stress. And now watching the finals of Women's Soft Ball World Championship. I've always thought Ueno is a great pitcher, but have re-realized that watching this game. Oh god, we've earned a score to make it 4 to 3 and entering the bottom of hte 8th inning! Nail-biting!

The End

Caterpillar

8/13  Mysterious

9:05 p.m. Our softball team has unfortunately lost the game to miss the gold medal in the World Championships, but that wasn't just because Ueno got hit after she'd thrown more than 240 balls throughout the double-header. I believe it was because there wasn't another pitcher to take her place.

Coming up this weekend is the Sapporo Kinen. Names like Crocosmia, Go For The Summit, Makahiki and Mozu Katchan is on the entry list. What caught my eye was the name of Sungrazer, though. The horse has performed well in shorter distance from 1400m to 1600m. Why 2,000m? They say that the main rider and the trainer has been mentioning about a mile distance getting too short for the horse, but is that the reason? What makes them think so in the first place? Mysterious.

The End

Caterpillar

8/14  Hard To Tell

7:40 p.m. Actually, there was a time when Sungrazer had raced on 2,000m turf, but that was when he was 2 years old and didn't win either. That was back in 2016 and Sungrazer had lost in 5th place.

Of course, that one race alone does not speak for the horse's performance in longer distance however, I just can't see the reason of this challenge as well as its timing, now. It's hard to tell if the Sungrazer crew are seeking to win a longer distance G1 or just thinking Sapporo Kinen as a prep for the autumn Mile Championship. We'll just have to wait and see, I guess.

Meanwhile, Yoshio has earned himself another 3rd place prize in Saga, Summer Champion (G3). His regular spot.

The End

Caterpillar

8/15  Finally Realized

9:24 p.m. On the expected win odds, Makahiki is ranked 3rd as of today. So the world has finally realized that Deep Impact descendants peak out early and their performance tend to decline as they get older.

Besides, Sapporo Kinen will be Makahiki's come-back race after a bone fracture. Even Grass Wonder couldn't come within 3rd place in his first race after a fracture. And Grass Wonder is one of the greatest race horses in the past twenty or so years. What makes people think that Makahiki can? Additionally, there are only 2 Deep Impact descendants that has come within 3rd place in Sapporo Kinen for the past 7 years after their debut, Harpstar and Decypher, not to mention Harpstar carried lighter weight because she was 3 years old.

The End

Caterpillar

8/16  Impressive Generation

7:22 p.m. Every summer when this time comes around, Sapporo Kinen reminds me of Seiun Sky. He was a fast and tough front runner almost always taking the lead, but couldn't perform well after his injury. He won Sapporo Kinen carrying the heaviest weight 59 kg, though it was the first time he didn't take the lead. I intuitively felt that something was wrong with the horse although I couldn't point out exactly what. And that was the last time he'd won. The horse got injured.

I started my betting carrier almost together with Seiun Sky's generation. There were great horses back then in that generation, Special Week, Grass Wonder, El Condor Passa, King Halo, and f course, Seiun Sky. Impressive generation that still stays in my memory.

The End

Caterpillar

8/17  Even The Barrie Draw

8:57 p.m. It's Friday and my short summer vacation has already come to an end while the barrier draw for Sapporo Kinen has been announced.

The top three favored, Mozu Katchan, Mikki Swallow and Makahiki have respectively drawn post numbers 15, 14 and 5. It seems as though even the barrier draw is against Makahiki. Perhaps Mikki Swallow, too. As for Mozu Katchan, it looks like luck is on her side since she wouldn't like being squashed between other horses.

The End

Caterpillar