2017/10
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10/01  No Excuses

7:11 p.m. I must have been blind. Or my eyes must have been holes on the bottom of a bucket.

Diana Halo, the horse I'd decided must be quite tough, wasn't so tough after all. She went up front, moving up side by side with the front runner at the last corner, but sank in 15th place. No excuses.

The End

Caterpillar

10/02  Unexceptionally Slow

3:40 p.m. The results of Sprinters' Stakes show that it was run in an unexceptionally slow lap (for a sprint G1).

The first three furlongs took 33.9 seconds. I'd presumed it would at least be faster than 33.5 seconds. No wonder Melagrana couldn't reach the top three from her position. It was an against for Diana Halo too, as she probably performs better in tight-lapped races.

The End

Caterpillar

10/03  Deluxe Members

4:26 p.m. Come to think of it, Diana Halo had been too over-worked, considering that she ran without much recess from May.

This weekend, there's going to be prep races in Tokyo and Kyoto, Mainichi Ohkan and Kyoto Dai-shohten. Deluxe members are entered in Mainichi Ohkan with the names of Soul Stirling, Makahiki, Satono Aladdin, Real Steel plus old One And Only. Looking forward to the race.

The End

Caterpillar

10/04  Deep Descendants Can't Win The Arc

2:02 p.m. Oh, and I'd completely forgotten about Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe, because I knew there's know way Satono Diamond could win. I was enjoying listening to BL CD dramas at the time of the race, and didn't even see the race run on TV.

In my humble opinion, the requirements of this particular race does not suit the features of Deep Impact descendants. They perform best in distances between 1600m to 2200m at longest, and in a race in which they can burst their speed in one blast. That's why I believe Deep Impact descendants will not win the Arc. Besides, Satono Diamond was apparently fatigued seen from even a novice as myself. So there was no way he could have won.

The End

Caterpillar

10/05  Things Are Looking Shaky

2:19 p.m. I am surprised yet again, that today we're pushed up to number 5 in the ranking. It's the first time we've ever made it to top 5 not to mention, and I'm wondering why.

The only reason I could think of was that I wrote about horse race (Prix de L'Arc de Triomhe, in particular) yesterday, and I find myself unable to break away from the temptation to write about horse race again.

I was thinking that Soul Stirling would be the center of Mainichi Ohkan, but as I checked out her career, I realized she didn't have a fast track record. I thought it was crucial to have the experience of having performed well on a firm, fast track to win this race. Er... things are starting to look shaky. Will go and see if there were any 3-year-olds that performed well without such experience later.

The End

Caterpillar

10/06  Mainichi Ohkan Barriers

2:01 p.m. The barrier draw for Sunday's Mainichi Ohkan has been announced, so let's go take a look.

Soul Stirling in post number 1, Makahiki in 2, Daiwa Cagney in 3, Astra Emblem in 4, Historical in 5, Matchless Hero in 6, Greater London in 7, Real Steel in 8, Young Man Power in 9, One And Only in 10, Win Bright in 11, and Satono Aladdin in 12.

Since it's not a full-barrier race with 18 horses and there doesn't seem to be a particular horse that has to take the lead, it's beginning to look like a slow-lapped instantaneoud force contest again. Seeing from that viewpoint, horses starting from inner posts will have the advantage.

The End

Caterpillar

10/07  The Advantage

2:29 p.m. As I've said yesterday, I think the horses starting from inner barriers will have the advantage in Mainichi Ohkan, as well as the horses that can go up front, because my personal opinion is that the lap won't become so tight.

Therefore, I will key Soul Stirling on a wheel with Makahiki, Daiwa Cagney, Astra Emblem, Real Steel, and Satono Aladdin. Satono Aladdin might not have a chance to win since he races from behind, but can come in 3rd. Real Steel and Makahiki would depend on their position during the race. If they stay behind, it will become harder to win.

The barrier draw for Kyoto Dai-shohten run on Monday has also been announced, though I'm not going to call it since the payout annually turns out low. Still, I'm looking forward to see old Curren Mirotic take the lead.

The End

Caterpillar

10/08  One And Only Clan

10:54 p.m. I gave up buying betting tickets for Mainichi Ohkan at the last minute, since I couldn't decide which horse to cut out, Makahiki or Real Steel which made me decide after all, that it was too risky to put my bet on.

I was right about that decision. My key horse Soul Stirling has been pushed out to take the lead, which practically killed all her advantages. Christophe must have wanted to keep her behind some other leader as long as possible. But the older horses didn't allow that and she sank in 8th place. I didn't expect her to lose this big, even behind old One And Only, but then she might not have been in her original form. The damages of her spring races could have been more serious than I'd imagined.

Summer damage surfaced on Astra Emblem, that's why he lagged behind at the start. On the other hand, Real Steel looked gorgeous today as he walked around the paddock in fact, I've never seen him better. As for Makahiki, he had all the advantages he needs and still couldn't perform well. I'm afraid he just joined the One And Only clan.

The End

Caterpillar

10/09  Sink Or Swim

4:56 p.m. I was looking forward to see old Curren Mirotic take the lead, but he didn't or rather, couldn't. Well, I heard that he was left behind in hi training, so wasn't expecting much but still, it was a let down.

It was a sink or swim for Smart Layer, as she wouldn't have won if her course hadn't cleared. I'd take my hat off to the rider for drawing out the best from the horse. As a Deep Impact descendant, Smart Layer's feature is her instantaneous speed that hits the red zone in one long blast. Yutaka has made the best out of it leading her to the top finish despite her age. Not to mention she her 54kg weight served as an advantage in such a lagged lap race.

Judging from the result, Sounds Of Earth was not in his perfect condition, especially given the loss of his weight. Though he won't be able to join the One And Only clan, as he hasn't won a G1, let alone Mikki Rocket.

The End

Caterpillar

10/10  Unblievable Temperature

2:35 p.m. The high temperature has risen up to 28℃ and I'm wearing short sweat pants on short-sleeved T-shirt with sandals on barefoot. I thought it was October. They are having Oktoberfest in Munich and Halloween is only a couple of weeks ahead. Unbelievable.

However, the temperature is said to drop to it's normal state from Thursday this week, briging along a chance of rain till the weekend. The unstable weather will make it harder to call Shuka-sho coming up this weekend grrrrrr... Lys Gracieu looks reliable so far, but Aerolithe is also intriguing.

The End

Caterpillar

10/11  Catch

2:49 p.m. They said it was going to be hot until today so I've worn summer clothes again, but there's no way it could be over 28℃. Should have worn jeans.

I was secretly hoping that Fan Dii Na would be the most favored, though apparently everyone seem to have realized she was a catch and the most favored is Aerolithe followed by Lys Gracieux as of this afternoon. Darn.

The End

Caterpillar

10/12  Headlines

2:14 p.m. And today, it gets hot. Though I'm expecting drizzly and cool weather from tomorrow.

Headlines of Aerolithe has been screaming on the sports papers yesterday evening, but then, it was only Wednesday, still the middle of the week. Different names will come out until the day of the race. My guess is Fan Dii Na around Thursday or Friday, some Rabbit Run or Reine Minoru in between, wrapping up with Lys Gracieux in the weekend.

The End

Caterpillar

10/13  Drizzling

2:06 p.m. It's been drizzling since morning and the temperature has dropped as predicted by forecast. The barrier draw for the third and last crown for the fillies have been announced on this day, so let's take a look.

Aerolithe is in post number 1, Rabbit Run is in 2, Black Onyx is in 3, Mozu Katchan is in 4, Black's Beach is in 5, Meisho Owara is in 6, Lys Gracieux is in 7, Kawakita Enka is in 8, Hello Unicorn is in 9, Tagano Verona is in 10, Mirissa is in 11, Reine Minoru is in 12, Lycabettos is in 13, Deidre is in 14, Vous Etes Jolie is in 15, Fan Dii Na is in 16, Port Vendres is in 17, and Carribean Gold is in 18.

Hmmm... It depends largely on the track condition and the lap, but horses that drew outer posts and race from behind might have a hard time.

The End

Caterpillar

10/14  Shuka-sho, 2017

2:30 p.m. All right. My call for Shuka-sho.

My key horse will be Aerolithe. If she's in good form and can race without incident, I think she will win. Even if she couldn't take the lead, then she could stay behind Kawakita Enka. She's drawn an ideal barrier, she's got high potential and has proven it in her career. She's had a stress-free schedule and yet has raced against older horses to learn a thing or two. Aerolithe is going to win.

For second place, I'd push Lys Gracieux. It might not go as smooth as last week's Smart Layer, but if the track condition becomes softer it would advantage her even more. My choice for third place is Diedre though her current condition is a concern. Conclusively, will buy a wheel of Lys Gracieux, Diedre, perhaps with some Black Onyx and Mirissa. For those who are getting suspicious because my key horse didn't perform well in recent races, I'd suggest you key Lys Gracieux for safety's sake.

The End

Caterpillar

10/15  For Cow's Credit

4:58 p.m. Another rainy day.

Perhaps some of you might have won Shuka-sho if you'd followed my advice and keyed Lys Gracieux instead of Aerolithe. I should have done so myself, since Aerolithe came out losing 12kg since her last race, Queen's Stakes. This is what I think most difficult about calling horse race. You never know the condition of the horse until shortly before the race or even, after the race. There is a way to assume the horses' condition from the menu of their training, or its frequency, but then such information is only available on paid service (as far as I know)like weekly Keiba Book, Green Channel, or other horse race web service. I don't feel like paying merely to get that information for shaky assumptions.

Let me just tell you here for his credit, that Cow has won a trio.

The End

Caterpillar

10/16  Mental Note

3:20 p.m. It's the fourth day since it started raining last Friday. Wonder how much longer this will last? I'd probably be growing mushrooms on my head if it weren't for the coolness.

I admit it was a blunder to key Aerolithe for Shuka-sho. Must make a mental note not to buy horses that won their previous races taking the lead from start to finish, no matter how relaxed their racing schedule have been. It leaves more physical and mental damage than I had imagined.

The End

Caterpillar

10/17  The Troubling Thing

4:18 p.m. The rain has finally stopped.

Though it seems to be temporary and we'll be thrown back into drizzly weather sadly, by the end of tomorrow. Have just informed Cow that it's going to be his only chance to do the washing this week, so he ought to get up early tomorrow.

The troubling thing is not about the washing, but about the track condition of Kyoto this weekend. What would happen if it becomes soft again like last week (the distance is 3,000m mind you)?

The End

Caterpillar

10/18  Daunting

2:30 p.m. It became pleasantly sunny this morning however, it looks like it won't last long as they've said in the forecast earlier.

Rain will start falling again by late tonight in the Kanto area, and we'll be back again in that long spell of autumn rain. Plus, the temperature may rise and it could get sticky, depending on the typoon approaching from the south. Ugh. Daunting.

The End

Caterpillar

10/19  Threat On Soft Track

4:07 p.m. As the last of the 3-year-old's triple crown classic race, Kikkasho's barrier draw has been promptly announced as of today, so let's take a look.

Bless Journey in post number 1, Win Ganador in 2, Stiffelio in 3, Clincher in 4, Tricolore Bleu in 5, Meiner Wunsch in 6, Adam Barows in 7, Satono Arthur in 8, Kurino Yamatono O in 9, Best Approach in 10, Satono Cronichle in 11, Mikki Swallow in 12, Kiseki in 13, Popocatepetl in 14, Danburite in 15, Al Ain in 16, Platina Voice in 17, and My Style in 18.

Got the impression that all Stay Gold descendants have drawn the inner barriers. Wonder if they'd become any threat on the probably soft track.

The End

Caterpillar

10/20  Owe To Mirco

2:36 p.m. As I checked the win favor of Kikkasho, I realized Kiseki was pushed up to the top leaving Satsuki-sho winner Al Ain aside, so I've done a little research on this horse.

Kiseki is a descendant of Rulership, he's stepped up winning the 5 million prize class and the 10 million, stumbled a bit in Grade 2 Koube Shinbun-hai, a prep-race for Kikka-sho coming in 2nd behind Ray De Oro by 2 and a half lengths. Has lost in 3rd place against Satsuki-sho winner Al Ain Mainichi-hai this spring.

Not so much as a significant career in my eyes. Figured he must owe this favor mainly to Mirco DeMurro, his rider for Kikka-sho.

The End

Caterpillar

10/21  Too Much Uncertainty

3:05 p.m. The Orionids meteor shower is said to have its peak tonight though unfortunately, we're having a typhoon coming up and we're bound to miss it. I have a feeling that I couldn't see it last year either, due to weather conditions. Not again...

Pulling myself together, will try guessing, no, calling Kikkasho. This is one hard race to call as there is too much uncertainty... Will probably key Kiseki on a wheel of Bless Journey, Satono Arthur, Satono Chronicle, and Al Ain. I'm sorry, but I can't say anything for sure when I'm not even sure if the race actually would be run tomorrow.

The End

Caterpillar

10/22  Clincher!!!

6:32 p.m. I was close to winning 136,350 Yen but it slipped away through my fingers.

As I've said, I bought my tickets keying Kiseki on a wheel of Bless Journey, Satono Arthur, Satono Chronicle and Al Ain, but have added Popocatepetl seeing that he has performed well in long distance. As I was going over the racing form, there was a flash of moment when I felt a twinge of possibility in Clincher's bloodmaresire, Bryan's Time. Bryan's Time's blood has an explosive effect when it comes to distance over 3,000m. Good examples are Big Gold and Three Rolls.

However, I'd dismissed the idea thinking, no, not after the recent two races. If I hadn't I'd have been riding my own roadracing bike by this weekend... Clincher!!!

The End

Caterpillar